Doctors' Notes: Two Theories

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Here are two theories of mine, entirely my own and new, as far as I can tell.

Theory #1: Based on the elements that associate to form that Apparatus' element (for Dangruf Wadi, anything that is used in making Liquefaction, Fusion, or Light).

Theory #2: Based on Day of the Week order (see Doctor Status for a graphic). Take the next two days and the one before it.

Assumptions: Both theories assume the table is correct, which is itself partially theoretical and partially a compilation of previously acquired data & extrapolations. The table assumes that each Apparatus has a maximum of four likely results and each runic weapon result is likely at a maximum of four Apparati. Additional assumption: Rune Staff is the Light Apparatus' associated runic weapon result.

Reminder: We've got one of each of the following left to fill into the table: Rune Axe, Rune Baghnakhs, Rune Blade, Rune Rod, and Rune Staff.

"Skillchains with" Note: Elemental order based on the elemental wheel, but anything used only for Light or Darkness (Level 3 Skillchains) have gone to the end of the list. Skillchain information from FFXIclopedia.

Also: I am way, way too obsessed with figuring this out. Please help; share your results! :)

Code 00: Dangruf Wadi: Rune Baghnakhs (Rune Axe, Rune Chopper, and Rune Halberd also reported)
Skillchains with: Ice, Earth, Lightning, Water, Wind (for Light), Light (for Light).
Theory #1: Exclude Ice because Fire melts Ice and you're left with Earth, Lightning, and Water as the first three results -- OK.
Theory #2: Skip over Light and Dark; Lightning immediately preceeds Fire, which is followed by Earth and Water -- OK.


Code 01: Gusgen Mines: Rune Chopper (Rune Axe, Rune Baghnakhs, and Rune Bow also reported)
Skillchains with: Fire, Wind, Water (for Darkness), Ice (for Darkness), Light, Dark.
Theory #1: Fire, Wind, Water -- MAYBE. The connection between Earth and Water is the same as that for Earth and Ice, so why Water instead of Ice? ... plus, why keep Light and Dark out of it? Seems kind of arbitrary to me. But perhaps Ice was kept out of it because it would lead to too many Ice results.
Theory #2: Fire immediately preceeds Earth, which is followed by Water and Wind -- OK.


Code 02: Crawler's Nest: Rune Axe (Rune Bow, Rune Blade, and Rune Chopper also reported)
Skillchains with: Ice, Wind, Earth, Lightning, Light, Dark (for Darkness).
Theory #1: Ice, Wind, Earth -- OK.
Theory #2: Earth preceeds Water, which is followed by Wind and Ice. -- OK.


Code 03: Ordelle's Caves: Rune Bow (Rune Blade and Rune Halberd also reported)
Skillchains with: Earth, Lightning, Water, Ice, Dark, Light (for Light).
Theory #1: Exclude Earth because Wind blows away Earth and you're left with Lightning, Water, Ice -- MAYBE. If the Rune Axe is the last remaining runic weapon result for this Apparatus.
Theory #2: Water preceeds Wind, which is followed by Ice and Lightning -- MAYBE. If the Rune Axe is the last remaining runic weapon result for this Apparatus.
Overall Prediction: Rune Axe will be the remaining rune weapon here.


Code 04: The Eldieme Necropolis: Rune Blade (Rune Staff and Rune Halberd also reported)
Skillchains with: Wind, Earth, Lightning, Water, Light, Dark (for Darkness).

Theory #1: Exclude Wind because Ice blasts Wind (don't argue with FFXI logic...) and you're left with Earth, Lightning, Water -- NO. If the Rune Axe is the last remaining result for Ordelle's then you couldn't use it here (see Assumptions), which would leave you with Earth, Lightning, Light (a.k.a. Staff). Additional requirement: You'd have to skip over Earth for some reason, leaving you with Lightning, Light, Dark a.k.a. Rune Rod as the remaining result. Notably, we're still working with all elements that skillchain to create Ice-based skillchains.

Theory #2: Wind preceeds Ice, which is followed by Lightning and Light -- NO. You've got to skip over Wind for some reason. You cannot use the Rune Axe for Water, either, because it's being used as the last remaining result for Ordelle's and the Rune Chopper for Earth has been confirmed at four Apparati. To proceed with this theory in even a nominal sense, Rune Baghnakhs would have to be the remaining runic result. Of note is that the "followed by Lightning and Light" part still matches.
Overall Prediction: Theory #1 states Rune Rod, Theory #2 states Rune Baghnakhs (problem: Rune Baghnakhs fits better elsewhere; next available option following the theory is Rune Rod). Rune Rod will be the remaining rune weapon here.


Code 05: Outer Horutoto Ruins: Rune Halberd (Rune Rod, Rune Staff, and Rune Bow also reported)
Skillchains with: Water, Ice, Wind, Earth, Dark, Light (for Light).
Theory #1: Exclude Water because Lightning electrifies Water and you're left with Ice, Wind, Earth -- NO. Should be Dark, Light, Wind. Why skip over Ice and Earth? Earth could've been used up for the Eldieme, but it wasn't. It's almost as if they're waiting to use it for the Maze and waiting to use Ice for Garlaige. Dark and Light are still both used to create Lightning-based skillchains, though, so that should be noted.
Theory #2: Ice preceeds Lightning, which is followed by Light and Dark. -- MAYBE. You have to skip over Ice and I don't know why you'd do that. If you did, however, you'd be left with Wind preceeds Lightning, which is followed by Light and Dark. Notably, the "Light and Dark" part still matches.


Code 06: Garlaige Citadel: No Data (Rune Staff and Rune Rod according to FFXIclopedia table)
Skillchains with: Connected with Dark, Fire, Ice, Lightning, Water, Wind (for Light).

Theory #1: Dark, Fire, Ice -- MAYBE. The Rune Blade would have to be a runic result, but it just got skipped over in Outer Ruins... was that so they could use it here? Odd. Additional requirement: Fire a.k.a. Rune Baghnakhs as a runic result as well.

Theory #2: Lightning preceeds Light, which is followed by Dark and Fire -- MAYBE. Remaining two results would be Rune Halberd and Rune Baghnakhs, but Rune Halberd has already been used up. If that was a given condition when creating the list for Garlaige Citadel, or for whatever other reason you were skipping over Lightning, you'd be left with Ice preceeds Light, which is followed by Dark and Fire, which would work. Additional requirement: Rune Blade and Rune Baghnakhs as the last two remaining runic results.

Overall Prediction: Rune Blade and Rune Baghnakhs will be the remaining results here.


Code 07: Maze of Shakhrami: Rune Rod (Rune Chopper and Rune Baghnakhs also reported)
Skillchains with: Connected with Light, Earth, Fire, Ice, Wind, Water (for Darkness).
Theory #1: Light, Earth, Fire -- OK. Remaining result should be Rune Staff.
Theory #2: Light preceeds Dark, which is followed by Fire and Earth -- OK. Remaining result should be Rune Staff.
Overall Prediction: Rune Staff will be the remaining result here.


Conclusion: More Rune Weapon result data needed. Perhaps a modified form of Theory #2 would work if you made a habit of skipping over the one that immediately preceeds it but, again, this wouldn't work for all Apparati, it just seems to be a trend in some of the later ones.

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