Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Doctors' Notes: Two Theories
If you don't understand what's going on, check out Doctors' Notes first.
Here are two theories of mine, entirely my own and new, as far as I can tell.
Theory #1: Based on the elements that associate to form that Apparatus' element (for Dangruf Wadi, anything that is used in making Liquefaction, Fusion, or Light).
Theory #2: Based on Day of the Week order (see Doctor Status for a graphic). Take the next two days and the one before it.
Assumptions: Both theories assume the table is correct, which is itself partially theoretical and partially a compilation of previously acquired data & extrapolations. The table assumes that each Apparatus has a maximum of four likely results and each runic weapon result is likely at a maximum of four Apparati. Additional assumption: Rune Staff is the Light Apparatus' associated runic weapon result.
Reminder: We've got one of each of the following left to fill into the table: Rune Axe, Rune Baghnakhs, Rune Blade, Rune Rod, and Rune Staff.
"Skillchains with" Note: Elemental order based on the elemental wheel, but anything used only for Light or Darkness (Level 3 Skillchains) have gone to the end of the list. Skillchain information from FFXIclopedia.
Also: I am way, way too obsessed with figuring this out. Please help; share your results! :)
Code 00: Dangruf Wadi: Rune Baghnakhs (Rune Axe, Rune Chopper, and Rune Halberd also reported)
Skillchains with: Ice, Earth, Lightning, Water, Wind (for Light), Light (for Light).
Theory #1: Exclude Ice because Fire melts Ice and you're left with Earth, Lightning, and Water as the first three results -- OK.
Theory #2: Skip over Light and Dark; Lightning immediately preceeds Fire, which is followed by Earth and Water -- OK.
Code 01: Gusgen Mines: Rune Chopper (Rune Axe, Rune Baghnakhs, and Rune Bow also reported)
Skillchains with: Fire, Wind, Water (for Darkness), Ice (for Darkness), Light, Dark.
Theory #1: Fire, Wind, Water -- MAYBE. The connection between Earth and Water is the same as that for Earth and Ice, so why Water instead of Ice? ... plus, why keep Light and Dark out of it? Seems kind of arbitrary to me. But perhaps Ice was kept out of it because it would lead to too many Ice results.
Theory #2: Fire immediately preceeds Earth, which is followed by Water and Wind -- OK.
Code 02: Crawler's Nest: Rune Axe (Rune Bow, Rune Blade, and Rune Chopper also reported)
Skillchains with: Ice, Wind, Earth, Lightning, Light, Dark (for Darkness).
Theory #1: Ice, Wind, Earth -- OK.
Theory #2: Earth preceeds Water, which is followed by Wind and Ice. -- OK.
Code 03: Ordelle's Caves: Rune Bow (Rune Blade and Rune Halberd also reported)
Skillchains with: Earth, Lightning, Water, Ice, Dark, Light (for Light).
Theory #1: Exclude Earth because Wind blows away Earth and you're left with Lightning, Water, Ice -- MAYBE. If the Rune Axe is the last remaining runic weapon result for this Apparatus.
Theory #2: Water preceeds Wind, which is followed by Ice and Lightning -- MAYBE. If the Rune Axe is the last remaining runic weapon result for this Apparatus.
Overall Prediction: Rune Axe will be the remaining rune weapon here.
Code 04: The Eldieme Necropolis: Rune Blade (Rune Staff and Rune Halberd also reported)
Skillchains with: Wind, Earth, Lightning, Water, Light, Dark (for Darkness).
Theory #1: Exclude Wind because Ice blasts Wind (don't argue with FFXI logic...) and you're left with Earth, Lightning, Water -- NO. If the Rune Axe is the last remaining result for Ordelle's then you couldn't use it here (see Assumptions), which would leave you with Earth, Lightning, Light (a.k.a. Staff). Additional requirement: You'd have to skip over Earth for some reason, leaving you with Lightning, Light, Dark a.k.a. Rune Rod as the remaining result. Notably, we're still working with all elements that skillchain to create Ice-based skillchains.
Theory #2: Wind preceeds Ice, which is followed by Lightning and Light -- NO. You've got to skip over Wind for some reason. You cannot use the Rune Axe for Water, either, because it's being used as the last remaining result for Ordelle's and the Rune Chopper for Earth has been confirmed at four Apparati. To proceed with this theory in even a nominal sense, Rune Baghnakhs would have to be the remaining runic result. Of note is that the "followed by Lightning and Light" part still matches.
Overall Prediction: Theory #1 states Rune Rod, Theory #2 states Rune Baghnakhs (problem: Rune Baghnakhs fits better elsewhere; next available option following the theory is Rune Rod). Rune Rod will be the remaining rune weapon here.
Code 05: Outer Horutoto Ruins: Rune Halberd (Rune Rod, Rune Staff, and Rune Bow also reported)
Skillchains with: Water, Ice, Wind, Earth, Dark, Light (for Light).
Theory #1: Exclude Water because Lightning electrifies Water and you're left with Ice, Wind, Earth -- NO. Should be Dark, Light, Wind. Why skip over Ice and Earth? Earth could've been used up for the Eldieme, but it wasn't. It's almost as if they're waiting to use it for the Maze and waiting to use Ice for Garlaige. Dark and Light are still both used to create Lightning-based skillchains, though, so that should be noted.
Theory #2: Ice preceeds Lightning, which is followed by Light and Dark. -- MAYBE. You have to skip over Ice and I don't know why you'd do that. If you did, however, you'd be left with Wind preceeds Lightning, which is followed by Light and Dark. Notably, the "Light and Dark" part still matches.
Code 06: Garlaige Citadel: No Data (Rune Staff and Rune Rod according to FFXIclopedia table)
Skillchains with: Connected with Dark, Fire, Ice, Lightning, Water, Wind (for Light).
Theory #1: Dark, Fire, Ice -- MAYBE. The Rune Blade would have to be a runic result, but it just got skipped over in Outer Ruins... was that so they could use it here? Odd. Additional requirement: Fire a.k.a. Rune Baghnakhs as a runic result as well.
Theory #2: Lightning preceeds Light, which is followed by Dark and Fire -- MAYBE. Remaining two results would be Rune Halberd and Rune Baghnakhs, but Rune Halberd has already been used up. If that was a given condition when creating the list for Garlaige Citadel, or for whatever other reason you were skipping over Lightning, you'd be left with Ice preceeds Light, which is followed by Dark and Fire, which would work. Additional requirement: Rune Blade and Rune Baghnakhs as the last two remaining runic results.
Overall Prediction: Rune Blade and Rune Baghnakhs will be the remaining results here.
Code 07: Maze of Shakhrami: Rune Rod (Rune Chopper and Rune Baghnakhs also reported)
Skillchains with: Connected with Light, Earth, Fire, Ice, Wind, Water (for Darkness).
Theory #1: Light, Earth, Fire -- OK. Remaining result should be Rune Staff.
Theory #2: Light preceeds Dark, which is followed by Fire and Earth -- OK. Remaining result should be Rune Staff.
Overall Prediction: Rune Staff will be the remaining result here.
Conclusion: More Rune Weapon result data needed. Perhaps a modified form of Theory #2 would work if you made a habit of skipping over the one that immediately preceeds it but, again, this wouldn't work for all Apparati, it just seems to be a trend in some of the later ones.
Go Back to Doctor Status
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Doctors' Notes: Runic Results
I'm sure this could've fit in the regular Doctors' Notes post, but I decided to leave that for theories.
I wanted to create a section just to see how many of certain Rune weapons were found at each Apparatus, just to get a vague idea of how often they were presented.
These results, for lack of complete information as defined by the guide, cannot be entered into the individual Apparatus' page results, usually for a lack of moon phase, so here they are, to be added to whatever else you find in this guide, should you want to know how often someone's gotten a certain Rune weapon from a certain Apparatus.
Total is first, followed by any specific information provided for individual trades. For instance: Rune Axe (8, 3 on Watersday) means a total of eight, three of which were reported as being on Watersday.
Once again, these are additional data not from the rest of the guide:
Dangruf Wadi: Rune Baghnakhs (5, 1 on Firesday), Rune Axe (2), Rune Chopper (2), Rune Halberd (1)
Gusgen Mines: Rune Bow (1)
Crawler's Nest: Rune Axe (8, 3 on Watersday), Rune Bow (6), Rune Blade (4, 1 on Darksday), Rune Chopper (1)
Ordelle's Caves: Rune Bow (3, 1 on Lightningday), Rune Blade (1), Rune Halberd (2, 1 on Iceday)
The Eldieme Necropolis: Rune Staff (2), Rune Blade (1)
Outer Horutoto Ruins: Rune Halberd (4), Rune Rod (2, 1 on Darksday), Rune Staff (1)
Garlaige Citadel: No Data
Maze of Shakhrami: No Data
Additional, non-quantifiable data:
Dangruf Wadi: You get Rune Baghnakhs from here (Layzee).
Gusgen Mines: Many Rune Choppers, Rune Axes, and Rune Baghnakhs (Indigla). The Rune Chopper is by far the most common, but I've also gotten a few Rune Axes, and one Rune Bow (Svak).
Crawler's Nest: It took about 13 tries to get the Rune Blade (EnnochAlexander). One Rune Blade result per "TON" of Rune Axes and Rune Bows (Tatsuko). A friend got a Rune Axe & said it also drops a Rune Blade but I have wasted a good 200k trying to get this bad boy (Blinx, blinxxi AT yahooDOTcom).
Ordelle's Caves: No Data
The Eldieme Necropolis: No Data
Outer Horutoto Ruins: In a batch of trades, just Rune Halberds, no other Rune weapons (FFXIclopedia entry). The Rune Halberd comes from the one in Outer Horototo Ruins (Onionsoilder).
Garlaige Citadel: No Data
Maze of Shakhrami: No Data
COMPLETE TOTALS as of Feb. 06, 2009
Dangruf Wadi: Rune Baghnakhs (13, 1 on Lightsday, 7 on Firesday, 1 on Iceday), Rune Axe (4, 1 on Darksday, 1 on Firesday), Rune Chopper (4, 1 on Earthsday, 1 on Watersday), Rune Halberd (1)
Gusgen Mines: Rune Chopper (1 on Earthsday), Rune Bow (1)
Crawler's Nest: Rune Axe (14, 7 on Watersday, 2 on Lightningday), Rune Bow (8, 1 on Watersday, 1 on Windsday), Rune Blade (6, 1 on Darksday, 1 on Firesday, 1 on Watersday), Rune Chopper (1)
Ordelle's Caves: Rune Bow (4, 1 on Darksday, 1 on Lightningday), Rune Blade (3, 2 on Windsday), Rune Halberd (2, 1 on Iceday)
The Eldieme Necropolis: Rune Blade (4, 1 on Lightsday, 1 on Windsday, 1 on Lightningday), Rune Staff (2), Rune Halberd (1 on Windsday)
Outer Horutoto Ruins: Rune Halberd (5, 1 on Watersday), Rune Rod (4, 1 on Darksday, 2 on Watersday), Rune Staff (2, 1 on Watersday), Rune Bow (1 on Lightsday)
Garlaige Citadel: No Data
Maze of Shakhrami: Rune Chopper (2, 1 on Lightsday, 1 on Darksday), Rune Rod (1 on Lightsday), Rune Baghnakhs (1 on Lightsday)
Go Back to Doctor Status
I wanted to create a section just to see how many of certain Rune weapons were found at each Apparatus, just to get a vague idea of how often they were presented.
These results, for lack of complete information as defined by the guide, cannot be entered into the individual Apparatus' page results, usually for a lack of moon phase, so here they are, to be added to whatever else you find in this guide, should you want to know how often someone's gotten a certain Rune weapon from a certain Apparatus.
Total is first, followed by any specific information provided for individual trades. For instance: Rune Axe (8, 3 on Watersday) means a total of eight, three of which were reported as being on Watersday.
Once again, these are additional data not from the rest of the guide:
Dangruf Wadi: Rune Baghnakhs (5, 1 on Firesday), Rune Axe (2), Rune Chopper (2), Rune Halberd (1)
Gusgen Mines: Rune Bow (1)
Crawler's Nest: Rune Axe (8, 3 on Watersday), Rune Bow (6), Rune Blade (4, 1 on Darksday), Rune Chopper (1)
Ordelle's Caves: Rune Bow (3, 1 on Lightningday), Rune Blade (1), Rune Halberd (2, 1 on Iceday)
The Eldieme Necropolis: Rune Staff (2), Rune Blade (1)
Outer Horutoto Ruins: Rune Halberd (4), Rune Rod (2, 1 on Darksday), Rune Staff (1)
Garlaige Citadel: No Data
Maze of Shakhrami: No Data
Additional, non-quantifiable data:
Dangruf Wadi: You get Rune Baghnakhs from here (Layzee).
Gusgen Mines: Many Rune Choppers, Rune Axes, and Rune Baghnakhs (Indigla). The Rune Chopper is by far the most common, but I've also gotten a few Rune Axes, and one Rune Bow (Svak).
Crawler's Nest: It took about 13 tries to get the Rune Blade (EnnochAlexander). One Rune Blade result per "TON" of Rune Axes and Rune Bows (Tatsuko). A friend got a Rune Axe & said it also drops a Rune Blade but I have wasted a good 200k trying to get this bad boy (Blinx, blinxxi AT yahooDOTcom).
Ordelle's Caves: No Data
The Eldieme Necropolis: No Data
Outer Horutoto Ruins: In a batch of trades, just Rune Halberds, no other Rune weapons (FFXIclopedia entry). The Rune Halberd comes from the one in Outer Horototo Ruins (Onionsoilder).
Garlaige Citadel: No Data
Maze of Shakhrami: No Data
COMPLETE TOTALS as of Feb. 06, 2009
Dangruf Wadi: Rune Baghnakhs (13, 1 on Lightsday, 7 on Firesday, 1 on Iceday), Rune Axe (4, 1 on Darksday, 1 on Firesday), Rune Chopper (4, 1 on Earthsday, 1 on Watersday), Rune Halberd (1)
Gusgen Mines: Rune Chopper (1 on Earthsday), Rune Bow (1)
Crawler's Nest: Rune Axe (14, 7 on Watersday, 2 on Lightningday), Rune Bow (8, 1 on Watersday, 1 on Windsday), Rune Blade (6, 1 on Darksday, 1 on Firesday, 1 on Watersday), Rune Chopper (1)
Ordelle's Caves: Rune Bow (4, 1 on Darksday, 1 on Lightningday), Rune Blade (3, 2 on Windsday), Rune Halberd (2, 1 on Iceday)
The Eldieme Necropolis: Rune Blade (4, 1 on Lightsday, 1 on Windsday, 1 on Lightningday), Rune Staff (2), Rune Halberd (1 on Windsday)
Outer Horutoto Ruins: Rune Halberd (5, 1 on Watersday), Rune Rod (4, 1 on Darksday, 2 on Watersday), Rune Staff (2, 1 on Watersday), Rune Bow (1 on Lightsday)
Garlaige Citadel: No Data
Maze of Shakhrami: Rune Chopper (2, 1 on Lightsday, 1 on Darksday), Rune Rod (1 on Lightsday), Rune Baghnakhs (1 on Lightsday)
Go Back to Doctor Status
Thursday, January 1, 2009
Doctors' Notes
Here's a section for theories and what I know.
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MY THEORY
Based on my admittedly limited data (but wow, check out Dangruf Wadi!), what was reported at the Alla site and FFXIclopedia entry (both links in Doctor Status), and the below notes, I have become convinced that each Strange Apparatus is more likely to give a certain type of Rune weapon. Notice how there are eight of them? And eight elements? And eight Strange Apparati? And... oh, there's twelve moon phases in the original Japanese client, before they switched to mere precentages for the rest of us. Well, ah... just hear me out. It may be wishful thinking, but it's my wishful thinking.
Besides, there are a total of twelve rune drops. But you can judge moon phase results on your own by looking at this blog.
So anyway, based on what I've seen so far, while you can get any rune weapon from any Strange Apparatus, you're more likely to get:
Dangruf Wadi: Rune Baghnakhs (Rune Axe, Rune Chopper, and Rune Halberd also reported)
Gusgen Mines: Rune Chopper (Rune Axe, Rune Baghnakhs, and Rune Bow also reported)
Crawler's Nest: Rune Axe (Rune Bow, Rune Blade, and Rune Chopper also reported)
Ordelle's Caves: Rune Bow (Rune Blade and Rune Halberd also reported)
The Eldieme Necropolis: Rune Blade (Rune Staff and Rune Halberd also reported)
Outer Horutoto Ruins: Rune Halberd (Rune Rod, Rune Staff, and Rune Bow also reported)
Garlaige Citadel: No Data (Rune Staff and Rune Rod according to FFXIclopedia table)
Maze of Shakhrami: Rune Rod (Rune Chopper and Rune Baghnakhs also reported)
Overall, what I've noticed is that you've got the Rune Axe at three apparati in a row, the Rune Baghnakhs at three apparati in a row, the Rune Blade at three apparati in a row, the Rune Bow at four apparati (three of which are in a row), the Rune Chopper at four apparati in a row, the Rune Halberd at four apparati (three of which are in a row), the Rune Rod at three apparati in a row, the Rune Staff at three apparati in a row and two to four known weapon results at each apparatus.
To me, this says that there are, in fact, four weapon results at each apparatus that you're likely to get (although there's one that's the most common, two more that are less common, and a fourth that you're not very likely to get, and then maybe, maybe a snowball's chance in hell of getting any other rune weapon result) at that particular apparatus.
I think that each rune result is possible at a maximum of four different apparati. We'll need to find one more Rune Axe, one more Rune Baghnakhs, one more Rune Blade, one more Rune Rod, and one more Rune Staff, which is a total of five more slots; notice how there are only five more spaces (if the maximum of four likely results at each apparatus part of my theory is true).
I think that the weapons that you're likely to get are not solely influenced by their position on the list (example: Maze having Dangruf's most likely result, Rune Baghnakhs, as a possibility because the Maze comes right before Dangruf) but also have something to do with their elemental relationships.
Frankly, though, I'm at a loss when it comes to elemental relationships, elemental attributes of weapon skills/magic burst, etc... as a White Mage, I never had to learn any of that. I've looked at the elemental relationship table and compass (for crafting) and while I see definite patterns, there's always an exception to the rule (turning that potential rule into seemingly nothing more than a coincidence).
As you'll note, this list gives absolutely no way to get the specified result, unfortunately! I'd like to further postulate that you're more likely to get a rune weapon result on the matching day, the day to which the apparatus' element is weak, and the day to which the element is strong. So far, though data is limited, we've been more likely to get rune weapons on Lightsday and Darksday at the Maze (associated element: Dark).
About lunar results: I think having a moon close to 50% gives you a 50/50 chance of absolutely any result, from cermet chunks to rune weapons. I think Full and New moons have an obvious influence as well but I'm not sure what it is.
Doctor Ortega's results (see below) are intriguing. Over approx. 200 runs, he's observed each to have four Rune weapon results (including Arrows), which adds up to 3 when you take away the Arrows and that's exactly what I understand from the above table (one common result unique to each Apparatus with two follow ups). Furthermore, he gives Rune Rod at the Maze as an example of each Apparatus having their own "unique" weapon. If only he'd commented further, we might've unlocked what I believe to be the most common result from each Apparatus.
Based on a conversation with Doctor Indigla, who makes regular runs to Gusgen Mines, she has recieved many Rune Choppers, Rune Axes, and Rune Baghnakhs, which holds with my theory of getting the result above it and the one below it. No other weapons reported by her, so I'd suggest not going to Gusgen unless you want one of the three aforementioned weapons.
I can say that the Crawler's Nest Rune Blade result comes from the same source that also listed a "TON" of Rune Axes & Bows at Crawler's Nest (Tatsuko). I've found two more Rune Blade results (Tatsuko's wasn't added because of a lack of Moon Phase), more strongly suggesting that Rune Blade is the common result of Ordelle's (by virtue of the fact that Crawler's is right above Ordelle's in list, which is based on their Codes).
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What I know is that it's been said for at least a couple of years now to some that you can get any result (except specific elemental clusters) from any Apparatus. From what I've seen, however, some are not reported at certain machines.
But don't despair, as I'm sure there's some underlying mechanism that determines what you get -- or, at the very least, what you don't get. I don't think it's completely random and, hopefully, with time, we can uncover some patterns.
It's also been speculated that something special may happen if you set your password for all eight apparati.
Response 1: According to FFXIclopedia, engaging Doctor Status at one Apparatus will remove it from the previous one. Even so, I plan on activating all eight, starting with Dangruf Wadi and ending with the Maze and seeing what happens.
Response 2: Doctor Rustymetal from Bismarck (my server) wrote Sep 4 2005, 01:29 AM in the Killing Ifrit topic "Doctor status only gives you 100% no clusters. Also have tried going to each app. and putting password in, still gave same results in items. Also tried putting the password in elemental day order. Still no change." This would seem to confirm that there's nothing special about putting in your password for all eight apparati.
Notes from Doctor Svak on Aug. 15, 2006:
The Rune Chopper is by far the most common in the Gusgen Mines, but I've also gotten a few Rune Axes, and one Rune Bow. Also I came up with some Rune Arrows and Bangles, but those seem possible for every apparatus. Also, a note about the elemental day, I will soon be recording my data, but the trend seems to be that "common" items come most on the MATCHING elemental day (Earth = Earths day, Fire = Fires day, etc.) where as the day the element is WEAK (Earth < Wind, Fire < Water, etc.) seems to bring a combonation of Rune Weapons and Common Items, about equal. The STRONG elemental day (Earth > Thunder, Fire > Ice, etc.) appears to bring mostly the items in a sort of half-way area, Arrows, Flowerpots, and Bangles.
Notes from Doctor Ortega on Aug. 7, 2006
-The drops off the aparatus's are completely random
-Aalthough some aparatus's have their own unique rune weapon, example a rune rod can be found in maze of shakrami aparatus
-but all of them drop at least 4 different rune weapons including rune arrows
-I have noticed different rates of drops depending on the element day and color chip you use, not affected by the moon phase.
-I seem to get more rune equipment if i trade the chip on same element (Like a red chip, in dangruf wadi, on firesday) and more flowerpots, cermet chunks, adaman nuggets on days that are strong or weak against the element of cooresponding chip.
-Timeframe: Observed over approximately 200 runs
Notes from Doctor Precedia on Mar. 14, 2006:
All based on the Crawler's Nest one:
Pattern:
-When we first started using the device we frequently received rune arrows, with the more rare adaman nuggets/chunks/flower pot.
-When we got the the *middle stage* (unknown how many cores) we received only chunks, adaman nugets and occasional flowerpot.
-Where we are now: the majority of all drops are rune weapons, not arrows.
-While I never kept track of how many we each tradded, we always do this together, we wait until we both have the same number of cores to trade, and these results occured for both of us at the exact same time. All cores/chips were used in CN and passwords were used before all trades.
-Timeframe: we have been doing this since early november, and trade approximetly 1 core/chip per week, each
Notes from Doctor thatdamnelf on Jan. 24, 2006:
All this time, we (my LS) thought chip was supposed to match day and device, not just device. Lol. We always traded on firesday because of this. I think moonphase determine drop% odds of the items, we get far more adaman nuggets and rune weapons on full moon 95% or higher. Tend to get junk when in the low teens waxing or waning.
Further Notes from Doctor thatdamnelf on Dec. 4, 2006:
-Theory:
-More dark element (darksday, new moon), better chance of arcane pot.
-More light element, (lightsday, full moon), or more element of the aperatus is weaker/stronger (watersday, firesday, iceday @ Dangruf wadi, which is fire element) better chance of a rune weapon of some kind.
-Other element may infuelnce odds on specific rune weapon, such as rune arrows on windsday (not that those are in any way rare for me >.<).
Notes from Doctor Aldante on Apr. 10, 2005:
Applies to the Dangruf Wadi Apparatus:
-If you Dare, try this:
-I have a little belief that trading around 30-40% moon phase on watersday give u higher chances of getting Arcane pot. But i am yet to try it out, if you are willing to try this also please do so and report your results, i will do the same, the more data we get the better my analysis can be.
Notes from Doctor criminalz on Mar. 15, 2005:
well i tested out dangruff wadi last night on fire day with 9 red chips and 9 infinity cores.
results....
1. 8 cermet chunks ---> 5k each
2. fire cluster ----> not worth the 21k chip
3. fire cluster ----> not worth the 21k chip
4. 6 rune arrows ----> 1.2k to NPC
5. adaman nuggets ---> 31k each
6. 8 cermet chunks ---> 5k each
7. fire cluster ----> not worth the 21k chip
8. fire cluster ----> not worth the 21k chip
9. 8 cermet chunks ---> 5k each
Althaia's Note: I've included criminalz's notes because it's just one of a few different examples I've seen of trading on the Apparatus' associated elemental day yielding common results.
Go Back to Doctor Status
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MY THEORY
Based on my admittedly limited data (but wow, check out Dangruf Wadi!), what was reported at the Alla site and FFXIclopedia entry (both links in Doctor Status), and the below notes, I have become convinced that each Strange Apparatus is more likely to give a certain type of Rune weapon. Notice how there are eight of them? And eight elements? And eight Strange Apparati? And... oh, there's twelve moon phases in the original Japanese client, before they switched to mere precentages for the rest of us. Well, ah... just hear me out. It may be wishful thinking, but it's my wishful thinking.
Besides, there are a total of twelve rune drops. But you can judge moon phase results on your own by looking at this blog.
So anyway, based on what I've seen so far, while you can get any rune weapon from any Strange Apparatus, you're more likely to get:
Dangruf Wadi: Rune Baghnakhs (Rune Axe, Rune Chopper, and Rune Halberd also reported)
Gusgen Mines: Rune Chopper (Rune Axe, Rune Baghnakhs, and Rune Bow also reported)
Crawler's Nest: Rune Axe (Rune Bow, Rune Blade, and Rune Chopper also reported)
Ordelle's Caves: Rune Bow (Rune Blade and Rune Halberd also reported)
The Eldieme Necropolis: Rune Blade (Rune Staff and Rune Halberd also reported)
Outer Horutoto Ruins: Rune Halberd (Rune Rod, Rune Staff, and Rune Bow also reported)
Garlaige Citadel: No Data (Rune Staff and Rune Rod according to FFXIclopedia table)
Maze of Shakhrami: Rune Rod (Rune Chopper and Rune Baghnakhs also reported)
Overall, what I've noticed is that you've got the Rune Axe at three apparati in a row, the Rune Baghnakhs at three apparati in a row, the Rune Blade at three apparati in a row, the Rune Bow at four apparati (three of which are in a row), the Rune Chopper at four apparati in a row, the Rune Halberd at four apparati (three of which are in a row), the Rune Rod at three apparati in a row, the Rune Staff at three apparati in a row and two to four known weapon results at each apparatus.
To me, this says that there are, in fact, four weapon results at each apparatus that you're likely to get (although there's one that's the most common, two more that are less common, and a fourth that you're not very likely to get, and then maybe, maybe a snowball's chance in hell of getting any other rune weapon result) at that particular apparatus.
I think that each rune result is possible at a maximum of four different apparati. We'll need to find one more Rune Axe, one more Rune Baghnakhs, one more Rune Blade, one more Rune Rod, and one more Rune Staff, which is a total of five more slots; notice how there are only five more spaces (if the maximum of four likely results at each apparatus part of my theory is true).
I think that the weapons that you're likely to get are not solely influenced by their position on the list (example: Maze having Dangruf's most likely result, Rune Baghnakhs, as a possibility because the Maze comes right before Dangruf) but also have something to do with their elemental relationships.
Frankly, though, I'm at a loss when it comes to elemental relationships, elemental attributes of weapon skills/magic burst, etc... as a White Mage, I never had to learn any of that. I've looked at the elemental relationship table and compass (for crafting) and while I see definite patterns, there's always an exception to the rule (turning that potential rule into seemingly nothing more than a coincidence).
As you'll note, this list gives absolutely no way to get the specified result, unfortunately! I'd like to further postulate that you're more likely to get a rune weapon result on the matching day, the day to which the apparatus' element is weak, and the day to which the element is strong. So far, though data is limited, we've been more likely to get rune weapons on Lightsday and Darksday at the Maze (associated element: Dark).
About lunar results: I think having a moon close to 50% gives you a 50/50 chance of absolutely any result, from cermet chunks to rune weapons. I think Full and New moons have an obvious influence as well but I'm not sure what it is.
Doctor Ortega's results (see below) are intriguing. Over approx. 200 runs, he's observed each to have four Rune weapon results (including Arrows), which adds up to 3 when you take away the Arrows and that's exactly what I understand from the above table (one common result unique to each Apparatus with two follow ups). Furthermore, he gives Rune Rod at the Maze as an example of each Apparatus having their own "unique" weapon. If only he'd commented further, we might've unlocked what I believe to be the most common result from each Apparatus.
Based on a conversation with Doctor Indigla, who makes regular runs to Gusgen Mines, she has recieved many Rune Choppers, Rune Axes, and Rune Baghnakhs, which holds with my theory of getting the result above it and the one below it. No other weapons reported by her, so I'd suggest not going to Gusgen unless you want one of the three aforementioned weapons.
I can say that the Crawler's Nest Rune Blade result comes from the same source that also listed a "TON" of Rune Axes & Bows at Crawler's Nest (Tatsuko). I've found two more Rune Blade results (Tatsuko's wasn't added because of a lack of Moon Phase), more strongly suggesting that Rune Blade is the common result of Ordelle's (by virtue of the fact that Crawler's is right above Ordelle's in list, which is based on their Codes).
-------
What I know is that it's been said for at least a couple of years now to some that you can get any result (except specific elemental clusters) from any Apparatus. From what I've seen, however, some are not reported at certain machines.
But don't despair, as I'm sure there's some underlying mechanism that determines what you get -- or, at the very least, what you don't get. I don't think it's completely random and, hopefully, with time, we can uncover some patterns.
It's also been speculated that something special may happen if you set your password for all eight apparati.
Response 1: According to FFXIclopedia, engaging Doctor Status at one Apparatus will remove it from the previous one. Even so, I plan on activating all eight, starting with Dangruf Wadi and ending with the Maze and seeing what happens.
Response 2: Doctor Rustymetal from Bismarck (my server) wrote Sep 4 2005, 01:29 AM in the Killing Ifrit topic "Doctor status only gives you 100% no clusters. Also have tried going to each app. and putting password in, still gave same results in items. Also tried putting the password in elemental day order. Still no change." This would seem to confirm that there's nothing special about putting in your password for all eight apparati.
Notes from Doctor Svak on Aug. 15, 2006:
The Rune Chopper is by far the most common in the Gusgen Mines, but I've also gotten a few Rune Axes, and one Rune Bow. Also I came up with some Rune Arrows and Bangles, but those seem possible for every apparatus. Also, a note about the elemental day, I will soon be recording my data, but the trend seems to be that "common" items come most on the MATCHING elemental day (Earth = Earths day, Fire = Fires day, etc.) where as the day the element is WEAK (Earth < Wind, Fire < Water, etc.) seems to bring a combonation of Rune Weapons and Common Items, about equal. The STRONG elemental day (Earth > Thunder, Fire > Ice, etc.) appears to bring mostly the items in a sort of half-way area, Arrows, Flowerpots, and Bangles.
Notes from Doctor Ortega on Aug. 7, 2006
-The drops off the aparatus's are completely random
-Aalthough some aparatus's have their own unique rune weapon, example a rune rod can be found in maze of shakrami aparatus
-but all of them drop at least 4 different rune weapons including rune arrows
-I have noticed different rates of drops depending on the element day and color chip you use, not affected by the moon phase.
-I seem to get more rune equipment if i trade the chip on same element (Like a red chip, in dangruf wadi, on firesday) and more flowerpots, cermet chunks, adaman nuggets on days that are strong or weak against the element of cooresponding chip.
-Timeframe: Observed over approximately 200 runs
Notes from Doctor Precedia on Mar. 14, 2006:
All based on the Crawler's Nest one:
Pattern:
-When we first started using the device we frequently received rune arrows, with the more rare adaman nuggets/chunks/flower pot.
-When we got the the *middle stage* (unknown how many cores) we received only chunks, adaman nugets and occasional flowerpot.
-Where we are now: the majority of all drops are rune weapons, not arrows.
-While I never kept track of how many we each tradded, we always do this together, we wait until we both have the same number of cores to trade, and these results occured for both of us at the exact same time. All cores/chips were used in CN and passwords were used before all trades.
-Timeframe: we have been doing this since early november, and trade approximetly 1 core/chip per week, each
Notes from Doctor thatdamnelf on Jan. 24, 2006:
All this time, we (my LS) thought chip was supposed to match day and device, not just device. Lol. We always traded on firesday because of this. I think moonphase determine drop% odds of the items, we get far more adaman nuggets and rune weapons on full moon 95% or higher. Tend to get junk when in the low teens waxing or waning.
Further Notes from Doctor thatdamnelf on Dec. 4, 2006:
-Theory:
-More dark element (darksday, new moon), better chance of arcane pot.
-More light element, (lightsday, full moon), or more element of the aperatus is weaker/stronger (watersday, firesday, iceday @ Dangruf wadi, which is fire element) better chance of a rune weapon of some kind.
-Other element may infuelnce odds on specific rune weapon, such as rune arrows on windsday (not that those are in any way rare for me >.<).
Notes from Doctor Aldante on Apr. 10, 2005:
Applies to the Dangruf Wadi Apparatus:
-If you Dare, try this:
-I have a little belief that trading around 30-40% moon phase on watersday give u higher chances of getting Arcane pot. But i am yet to try it out, if you are willing to try this also please do so and report your results, i will do the same, the more data we get the better my analysis can be.
Notes from Doctor criminalz on Mar. 15, 2005:
well i tested out dangruff wadi last night on fire day with 9 red chips and 9 infinity cores.
results....
1. 8 cermet chunks ---> 5k each
2. fire cluster ----> not worth the 21k chip
3. fire cluster ----> not worth the 21k chip
4. 6 rune arrows ----> 1.2k to NPC
5. adaman nuggets ---> 31k each
6. 8 cermet chunks ---> 5k each
7. fire cluster ----> not worth the 21k chip
8. fire cluster ----> not worth the 21k chip
9. 8 cermet chunks ---> 5k each
Althaia's Note: I've included criminalz's notes because it's just one of a few different examples I've seen of trading on the Apparatus' associated elemental day yielding common results.
Go Back to Doctor Status
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Code 07: Maze of Shakhrami
Code 07: Maze of Shakhrami (L-10), Map 2
Element: Dark
Chip: Black Chip
Results:
Lightsday - Rune Chopper (Full Moon ??%), Rune Baghnakhs (Full Moon ??%), Rune Arrow x 6 (Full Moon ??%), Cermet Chunk x 8 (Full Moon ??%), Rune Rod (New Moon ??%)
Darksday - Rune Chopper (Full Moon ??), Cermet Chunk x 8 (Full Moon ??)
Firesday -
Earthsday -
Watersday -
Windsday -
Iceday - Rune Arrow x 6 (New Moon ??), Adaman Nugget x 2 (New Moon ??), Cermet Chunk x 8 (New Moon ??)
Lightningday -
Totals: (How many times a certain result has been documented under the specified circumstances)
Lightsday, Full Moon ??% - Cermet Chunks (1), Rune Arrows (1), Rune Chopper (1), Rune Baghnakhs (1)
Lightsday, New Moon ??% - Rune Rod (1)
Darksday, Full Moon ?? - Cermet Chunks (1), Rune Chopper (1)
Iceday, New Moon ?? - Cermet Chunks (1), Adaman Nuggets (2), Rune Arrows (1)
Go Back to Doctor Status
Element: Dark
Chip: Black Chip
Results:
Lightsday - Rune Chopper (Full Moon ??%), Rune Baghnakhs (Full Moon ??%), Rune Arrow x 6 (Full Moon ??%), Cermet Chunk x 8 (Full Moon ??%), Rune Rod (New Moon ??%)
Darksday - Rune Chopper (Full Moon ??), Cermet Chunk x 8 (Full Moon ??)
Firesday -
Earthsday -
Watersday -
Windsday -
Iceday - Rune Arrow x 6 (New Moon ??), Adaman Nugget x 2 (New Moon ??), Cermet Chunk x 8 (New Moon ??)
Lightningday -
Totals: (How many times a certain result has been documented under the specified circumstances)
Lightsday, Full Moon ??% - Cermet Chunks (1), Rune Arrows (1), Rune Chopper (1), Rune Baghnakhs (1)
Lightsday, New Moon ??% - Rune Rod (1)
Darksday, Full Moon ?? - Cermet Chunks (1), Rune Chopper (1)
Iceday, New Moon ?? - Cermet Chunks (1), Adaman Nuggets (2), Rune Arrows (1)
Go Back to Doctor Status
Code 06: Garlaige Citadel
Code 06: Garlaige Citadel (K-8), Map 3
Element: Light
Chip: White Chip
Results:
Lightsday - Rune Arrow x 6 (New Moon ??%), Arcane Flowerpot (New Moon ??%)
Darksday - Cermet Chunk x 8 (Waning Gibbous 60%)
Firesday -
Earthsday -
Watersday -
Windsday -
Iceday -
Lightningday -
Totals: (How many times a certain result has been documented under the specified circumstances)
Lightsday, New Moon ??% - Arcane Flowerpot (1), Rune Arrows (1)
Darksday, Waning Gibbous 60% - Cermet Chunks (1)
Go Back to Doctor Status
Element: Light
Chip: White Chip
Results:
Lightsday - Rune Arrow x 6 (New Moon ??%), Arcane Flowerpot (New Moon ??%)
Darksday - Cermet Chunk x 8 (Waning Gibbous 60%)
Firesday -
Earthsday -
Watersday -
Windsday -
Iceday -
Lightningday -
Totals: (How many times a certain result has been documented under the specified circumstances)
Lightsday, New Moon ??% - Arcane Flowerpot (1), Rune Arrows (1)
Darksday, Waning Gibbous 60% - Cermet Chunks (1)
Go Back to Doctor Status
Code 05: Outer Horutoto Ruins
Code 05: Outer Horutoto Ruins (E-6), Amaryllis Tower Map 2
Element: Lightning
Chip: Purple Chip
Results:
Lightsday - Rune Bow (Full Moon 100%), Rune Bangles (Full Moon 100%), Rune Arrow x 6 (Full Moon 100%), Arcane Flowerpot (Full Moon 100%)
Darksday -
Firesday -
Earthsday -
Watersday - Rune Rod (First Quarter Moon 52%), Rune Staff (First Quarter Moon 52%), Rune Halberd (First Quarter Moon 52%), Rune Arrow x 6 (First Quarter Moon 52%), Arcane Flowerpot (First Quarter Moon 52%), Adaman Nugget x 2 (First Quarter Moon 52%), Cermet Chunk x 8 (First Quarter Moon 52%)
Windsday -
Iceday - Rune Arrow x 6 (Full Moon 100%), Arcane Flowerpot (Full Moon 100%), Cermet Chunk x 8 (Full Moon 100%)
Lightningday -
Totals: (How many times a certain result has been documented under the specified circumstances)
Lightsday, Full Moon 100% - Arcane Flowerpot (1), Rune Arrows (1), Rune Bangles (1), Rune Bow (1)
Watersday, First Quarter Moon 52% - Cermet Chunks (6), Adaman Nuggets (2), Arcane Flowerpot (2), Rune Arrows (1), Rune Rod (2), Rune Staff (1), Rune Halberd (1)
Iceday, Full Moon 100% - Cermet Chunks (1), Arcane Flowerpot (1), Rune Arrows (1)
Go Back to Doctor Status
Element: Lightning
Chip: Purple Chip
Results:
Lightsday - Rune Bow (Full Moon 100%), Rune Bangles (Full Moon 100%), Rune Arrow x 6 (Full Moon 100%), Arcane Flowerpot (Full Moon 100%)
Darksday -
Firesday -
Earthsday -
Watersday - Rune Rod (First Quarter Moon 52%), Rune Staff (First Quarter Moon 52%), Rune Halberd (First Quarter Moon 52%), Rune Arrow x 6 (First Quarter Moon 52%), Arcane Flowerpot (First Quarter Moon 52%), Adaman Nugget x 2 (First Quarter Moon 52%), Cermet Chunk x 8 (First Quarter Moon 52%)
Windsday -
Iceday - Rune Arrow x 6 (Full Moon 100%), Arcane Flowerpot (Full Moon 100%), Cermet Chunk x 8 (Full Moon 100%)
Lightningday -
Totals: (How many times a certain result has been documented under the specified circumstances)
Lightsday, Full Moon 100% - Arcane Flowerpot (1), Rune Arrows (1), Rune Bangles (1), Rune Bow (1)
Watersday, First Quarter Moon 52% - Cermet Chunks (6), Adaman Nuggets (2), Arcane Flowerpot (2), Rune Arrows (1), Rune Rod (2), Rune Staff (1), Rune Halberd (1)
Iceday, Full Moon 100% - Cermet Chunks (1), Arcane Flowerpot (1), Rune Arrows (1)
Go Back to Doctor Status
Code 04: The Eldieme Necropolis
Code 04: The Eldieme Necropolis (K-13), Map 2
Element: Ice
Chip: Clear Chip
Results:
Lightsday - Rune Blade (Waxing Crescent 43%), Rune Arrow x 6 (Waxing Crescent 43%), Adaman Nugget x 2 (Waxing Crescent 43%)
Darksday -
Firesday -
Earthsday -
Watersday -
Windsday - Adaman Nugget x 2 (Full Moon 93%), Cermet Chunk x 8 (Full Moon 93%), Rune Blade (Last Quarter Moon 60%), Rune Arrow x 6 (Last Quarter Moon 60%), Arcane Flowerpot (Last Quarter Moon 60%), Rune Halberd (Waning Crescent 21%), Arcane Flowerpot (Waning Crescent 21%), Cermet Chunk x 8 (Waning Crescent 21%)
Iceday - Adaman Nugget x 2 (Full Moon 96%)
Lightningday - Rune Blade (Waxing Gibbous 68%), Cermet Chunk x 8 (Waxing Gibbous 68%)
Totals: (How many times a certain result has been documented under the specified circumstances)
Lightsday, Waxing Crescent 43% - Adaman Nuggets (1), Rune Arrows (1), Rune Blade (1)
Windsday, Full Moon 93% - Cermet Chunks (2), Adaman Nuggets (1)
Windsday, Last Quarter Moon 60% - Arcane Flowerpot (2), Rune Arrows (1), Rune Blade (1)
Windsday, Waning Crescent 21% - Cermet Chunks (2), Arcane Flowerpot (1), Rune Halberd (1)
Iceday, Full Moon 96% - Adaman Nuggets (1)
Lightningday, Waxing Gibbous 68% - Cermet Chunks (1), Rune Blade (1)
Go Back to Doctor Status
Element: Ice
Chip: Clear Chip
Results:
Lightsday - Rune Blade (Waxing Crescent 43%), Rune Arrow x 6 (Waxing Crescent 43%), Adaman Nugget x 2 (Waxing Crescent 43%)
Darksday -
Firesday -
Earthsday -
Watersday -
Windsday - Adaman Nugget x 2 (Full Moon 93%), Cermet Chunk x 8 (Full Moon 93%), Rune Blade (Last Quarter Moon 60%), Rune Arrow x 6 (Last Quarter Moon 60%), Arcane Flowerpot (Last Quarter Moon 60%), Rune Halberd (Waning Crescent 21%), Arcane Flowerpot (Waning Crescent 21%), Cermet Chunk x 8 (Waning Crescent 21%)
Iceday - Adaman Nugget x 2 (Full Moon 96%)
Lightningday - Rune Blade (Waxing Gibbous 68%), Cermet Chunk x 8 (Waxing Gibbous 68%)
Totals: (How many times a certain result has been documented under the specified circumstances)
Lightsday, Waxing Crescent 43% - Adaman Nuggets (1), Rune Arrows (1), Rune Blade (1)
Windsday, Full Moon 93% - Cermet Chunks (2), Adaman Nuggets (1)
Windsday, Last Quarter Moon 60% - Arcane Flowerpot (2), Rune Arrows (1), Rune Blade (1)
Windsday, Waning Crescent 21% - Cermet Chunks (2), Arcane Flowerpot (1), Rune Halberd (1)
Iceday, Full Moon 96% - Adaman Nuggets (1)
Lightningday, Waxing Gibbous 68% - Cermet Chunks (1), Rune Blade (1)
Go Back to Doctor Status
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